Regional Heterogeneity in the Individual Unemployment Vulnerability After COVID-19 Outset

The COVID-19 crisis increased unemployment all over the World, with significant regional heterogeneity. This paper intends to analyze this territorial heterogeneity for the Portuguese case and investigate which regional factors complement personal and job characteristics in explaining individual vulnerability to COVID-19 unemployment. By considering personal, job and regional dimensions, we extended the literature and provided a more comprehensive understanding of this new phenomenon in the immediate and medium-term. Furthermore, this knowledge is essential to support policy suggestions for quick and effective action in preventing job losses in the current and future crises. Detailed information on all individuals that lost their jobs in Portugal 1 year after (and before) the COVID-19 outset was used to estimate three logit models that compare the odds of losing a job after and during the pandemic. Significant territorial heterogeneity of the COVID-19 impact on unemployment is obtained. Along with personal and job characteristics, we conclude that regional characteristics are essential for explaining individual vulnerabilities. In particular, workers are more prompted to lose their jobs if they live in regions with higher population densities, lower pre-crisis unemployment, and more dependable international flow. Conversely, individual and regional human capital investment contributes to protecting employment, revealing the existence of external effects.

Vulnerability to COVID-19 unemployment in the Portuguese tourism and hospitality industry

Purpose: This paper aims to address the immediate effects of the COVID-19 crisis in the Portuguese tourism and hospitality industry by examining whether some specific characteristics make people more vulnerable or more immune to unemployment. Design/methodology/approach: Using an extensive micro-level data set of personal and job-related attributes containing all unemployed individuals in the Portuguese tourism and hospitality industry, a logit model with 56,142 observations is estimated to assess how each characteristic contributed to the unemployment odds during the COVID-19 crisis (until the end-July 2020), relatively to the pre-COVID period. Findings: The most vulnerable workers to COVID-19 unemployment seem to be older, less educated, less qualified, women and residents in regions with a higher concentration of people and tourism activity. Moreover, the COVID-19 crisis is generating a new type of unemployment by also affecting those who were never unemployed before, with more stable jobs and more motivated at work, while reducing voluntary disruptions. Practical implications: Public effort should be made not only to increase workforce education but especially to reinforce job-specific skills. The COVID-19 crisis has broken traditional protective measures against unemployment and separated workers from their desired occupations, which justifies new and exceptional job preservation measures. Policy recommendations are given aiming at strengthening worker resilience and industry competitiveness in the most affected sub-sectors and regions. Originality/value: This study extends the current understanding of worker vulnerability to economic downturns. Herein, this paper used a three-level approach (combining socio-demographic, work-related and regional factors), capturing the immediate effects of the COVID-19 crisis and focussing on the tourism and hospitality industry (the hardest-hit sector worldwide). (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2023 APA, all rights reserved)